Possible Market Retreat

I have several concerns regarding the recent rise in stock prices. First, while the economy is stabilizing, it doesn’t justify the large run-up we’ve seen.
My second concern is a technical one. We’ve seen increasing prices with decreasing volume. This divergence occurs before a turnaround Plot of the Dow from April until now is show below. The top line shows the price increase, the bottom line shows the volume decrease.

Market Divergence

My third concern regards fundamentals. Project work has not increased, and continues to decrease. Project take ideas and make them real. Projects implement innovation, projects are the mechanism by which organization’s change.

The fact that project work is decreasing tells me that we’re not changing. We’re trying to sell the same things we sold before the recession in the same way we sold them. Supporting this claim, many of the managers that ran large banks and investment companies into the ground are still in place. The “to big to fail” banks are still to big to fail. Many of the Wall Street and banking companies have returned to the very same practices that led us into the recession.

President Obama has injected money into the economy which has worked to stabilize the markets, but unless we change our habits and improve our management, we’ll be right back where we were last year.

The good news is, that isn’t not all doom and gloom. I as seeing traces in serious improvements. I just hope it’s enough!

Cheers.

The stock market’s about to turn negative.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the recent run-up in the stock market, because the party’s over. If you missed it, don’t worry, you’ll be able to buy back in at lower rates very soon.

I don’t usually comment on the stock market, but this one’s critical for all businesses. Market trends, are exhibiting a significant impact on day-to-day project decisions.

Trends indicate that the market (both real and stock) will start a significant downward trend starting as early as today.

Stay tuned and I’ll tell you why.

Gloomy Outlook for Project Management

I participate and subscribe to a monthly survey regarding international project business conducted by the Project Management Institute (PMI). The August results are more than gloomy.

35% indicate they’ve had a significate decrease in revenue expectation during the month. Another 32% indicate a slight decrease. 53% expect the economic crisis to have a negative effect on business through mid 2010, another 20% expect the trend to continue through the end of 2010.

Since it’s projects that take innovation and turn it into value, how are we ever going to get out of this recession?

It’s the value that finds the project

I’m answering some questions for an interview regarding my book. The way one question was worded caused me to think.

In an strategically-drive organization, it’s the value the finds the project, not the other way around. The strategic plan defines the goals for the organization. We then define projects to achieve those goals. This is the role of the portfolio and project designers.

Only in innovation-driven companies does the project have to find it’s value — a more challenging proposition. This doesn’t mean I rebuke creativity, I just recognize that it’s more challenging to find project value and alignment. The well-defined OGBS and value tracks will still serve their purpose.

Cheers

…and so, I tweet

Okay, I give up.

Thanks to a seminar attendee this week, I think I finally have a use for tweets.

I’m at:  http://www.twitter.com/mbbender

I’ll broadcast updates for the blog, newsletters and seminars.

Cheers

The Forest, the Trees, and Labor Day

It’s the Friday before Labor Day ­– one of the few (if not only) weekends dedicated to NOT working. There are no presents to wrap, no eggs to color, no turkey to roast, or midnight parties to attend. Even the concept of working on Labor Day holiday is sacrilegious.

This is one of my favorite holidays. In this country, we work, work, work. We’re so busy, we don’t even know why we do the things we do.

If you do want to take business advantage of Labor Day, use the quite time to examine what’s around you – see what’s important – see the forest, clear the trees from your way. No phone call to distract you, no bosses giving more requests, no deadlines to pressure you. See your job with a clear head, re-prioritize, and re-examine.

Then invite a few friends over and forget about work.

Cheers.

Recession management: back to basics

In my last entry, I indicated that many of my colleagues and I have noticed a sharp increase in simple mistakes — probably the result of the recession, recovery and lagging staffing.

When under stress, return to the basics. Checklists offer a wonderful tool to prevent mistakes, thereby saving the rework and embarrassment associated with them — saving you time and clients.

Cheers.

A Dedication to Quality

If you know me, you know how dedicated I am to the quality of my seminars, speeches and publications. This translates to the training companies I work with as well as the organizations in which I participate.

We are in a recession. Fortunately, key indicators (as well as my internal indicators) suggest we’re coming out of the recession. Unfortunately, this means the workload is growing faster than the revenue to support that workload.

The result: good, quality-focused companies are making some simple mistakes. I’m seeing companies that I know are sincere about quality and satisfying their clients making mistakes they’ve never made before (that includes mine).

So, how do you tell the difference? Simple — it’s cause and motivation. It’s unwise to deplete resources or to go into debt during a recession; but, quality companies don’t  give in to the pressure to sacrifice their dedication to quality.

You must remain true to your convictions. Don’t give them up.  The universe will understand.

Now, if you don’t mind, I have to go help my staff figure out what happened to some of the links on my web site and send in enhancement recommendations to one of my training partners.

Cheers,

Michael.